There has been a lot of talk about where the GOP is going and what it will be. I think more importantly is where will all of those traditional GOP republicans go that are leaving the party, and I have a prediction to make.
I think they will join the Democratic party, not directly, but as Independents who will always vote Democratic. The reason they will do so is to make sure that the bastardised version of the GOP they once knew and loved, can’t benefit from their new radicalised political role. They are disillusioned that their GOP has been hijacked and are miffed as to how it happened so fast, even though many admit they kind of helped it get there.
Some GOP traditionals will become Democrats because of what they see in President Biden and the good things that are coming out of his Presidency. They will understand that big government can be good government if it is managed properly. Capitalism and the ultra wealthy class can get out of hand if there aren’t substantial controls put in place and many of these GOPers are not at the top of that food chain.
As this happens the Democratic party will have a moderate slightly conservative wing and a very progressive more left leaning wing. The Democratic party will see its numbers grow as well as its diversity.
The Republican party on the other hand will remain radicalised and could go the way of the Wigs, if and only if the Democratic party takes in the former republicans who feel that the Democratic party is closer to the kind of traditional party that they knew and loved.
There could be a schism in the Democratic party where a de-facto republican party of more conservative democrats bolstered by converted republicans starts to lean more conservative.
It is not a far fetched idea that you could have one party with two different factions of political views that compete for a man or woman for the high offices.
Which ever candidate made it through would most likely get all of the Democrat votes, thus insuring the isolation of a more radical and more isolated Republican party.
The more traditional republicans see other republicans move to the Democratic party and have a voice the bigger the party will grow.
What could happen is that the more left leaning Democrats leave the party to create a Green party whose agenda is purely based on their ideals.
The Democratic party started as a party of the south that represented the white privileged and the Republicans were of the north which was predominantly white. The Democratic party looked to migrate north to be more white while the Republican party looked to gain more power by attracting white voters from the south.
During this process the Democratic party became more liberal in their thinking while the Republican party became more conservative and white leaning.
With the current direction that the Republican party is going and the diminishing political returns in terms of party influence, the big questions about power will focus less on race and more social equity and the role of government.
Americans are more socialist than they think. The US’s military establishment is as close as you can get to an authoritarian socialist order. Americans run their military like a socialist regime. Military personnel are like citizens with guaranteed jobs, education, training, medical and pensions.
As Americans start to see and compare other nations and as technology for food and consumer goods and services start to depend less on human labour there will be more focus on creating equity through government.
During this process the Democratic party will play the more significant role with former Republicans being the slow stepping force that join their ranks.
The question remains as to how Democrats will react when they see their former Republican colleagues joining their party. Will they be accepted or rejected?
History has shown that when a political party goes down the fascist route they will end up being banned in their own country. If what happened on January 6th ever happens again with the Republican Party this will seal the fate for the GOP.
Democrats with their former traditional republican allies will focus on relegating a fascist leaning GOP to the political party dustbin.